Cyber Gangs Aren't Afraid of Prosecution

COMMENTARY

Historically, cybercriminals have always had an edge over law enforcement. It may take a few hours to steal thousands of credit cards after exploiting a SQL injection flaw, but the subsequent investigation and prosecution of the cybercriminals can take years — and still fail.

Europol described the challenges in investigating and prosecuting cybercrime — the collection and preservation of digital evidence, difficulty tracing and identifying attackers, and legal and judicial hurdles associated with cross-border investigations — back in 2019. These challenges remain relevant in 2024.

Challenges That Law Enforcement Faces

While many countries have one or more specialized law enforcement agencies (LEAs) or police units capable of investigating cybercrime, the general trend is to commingle computer-enabled crimes (cybercrimes) with cyberattacks and send them all to a single agency.

Cybercrimes, which include online dating scams and other types of digital fraud that rely on social engineering, cause damages ranging from 100 to several thousand dollars. Compare that with cyberattacks — which require fairly advanced tech skills and resources from cyber gangs — such as ransomware attacks on critical national infrastructure and advanced persistent threats aimed at stealthily stealing valuable trade secrets from large companies or classified information from governmental agencies. When a single agency is tasked with handling all types of digital crimes, it is unsurprising that just the initial triage of incoming cases can consume virtually all agency resources.

In contrast to overwhelmed LEAs dealing with all kinds of tasks simultaneously using extremely modest resources, modern cyber gangs usually have narrow specializations, such as vulnerability research and exploit development, where they truly excel technically and financially. Cyber mercenaries may use breached LEAs as proxies to attack other systems and slow down investigations, while state-backed groups may exploit backdoored LEAs for perfidious attacks trying to frame their political enemies. On the Dark Web, the number of announcements selling access to backdoored LEA systems or networks is steadily growing.

Despite national security being a hot topic for lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic — and the increased funding that attention brings — specialized LEAs or units dedicated to tackling cybercrime still remain underfunded compared to their highly sophisticated, extraordinarily well-prepared, and well-funded adversaries.

Insufficient funding makes it harder to attract talented individuals to work on defense. In Western countries, state agencies struggle to compete with the deep-pocketed private sector for talented cybersecurity professionals, who can be swayed by perks unavailable to most government employees, such as higher salaries, longer leaves, and working from home. The situation is even worse in other countries: Young graduates with good technical skills can earn their annual salaries in a couple of weeks working for cybercrime conglomerates that actively prospect and recruit new members. In January 2024, FBI director Christopher Wray estimated that the number of hackers in China outnumbers all available FBI cyber personnel by at least 50 to 1.

Likewise, forensic tools and special equipment designed to bypass encryption on mobile devices or acquire digital evidence from a multicloud environment are also quite expensive, oftentimes being affordable only to leading national agencies or central forensic labs that serve thousands of requests from an entire country. As a result, a backlog of cybercrime investigations is building relentlessly, undermining people's trust in their government's capacity to protect their privacy and property on the Internet.

Advantages for the Cyber Gangs

International collaboration and judicial assistance in cybercrime investigation has never been simple. The Budapest Convention of 2001 is probably the most important international treaty designed to combat cross-border cybercrime. But even after the enactment of the Second Additional Protocol, the convention has fallen short of its original goals for political and organizational reasons. The recently proposed UN Treaty on Cybercrime is unlikely to do much better amid the unfolding geopolitical crises and the weakening force of international law.

The problem is that some countries, even after ratifying a treaty, are very selective when complying with the underlying duties and obligations owed to other signatories. They frequently ignore or simply delay required actions to the extent that, by the time they're finally performed, they are worthless — for instance, seizing volatile digital evidence several years after receiving a mutual legal assistance (MLAT) request from another sovereign state.

Indeed, some countries are considered safe harbors for cyber gangs that cooperate with, or work for, the government. These barons enjoy a luxurious lifestyle, safe in the knowledge that they will never be prosecuted domestically, let alone extradited, for cybercrimes that do not conflict with state public policy. Such cybercrime havens create a strong feeling of impunity among perpetrators, who believe — usually accurately — that they are above the law. Even if they are apprehended, cybercriminals usually get lenient punishments for the financial damage caused, compared to the decades-long and even life sentences for leaders of drug cartels or masterminds of Ponzi schemes.

Alarmingly, as the World Economic Forum reports, cybercrime has started to merge with organized and violent crime — for example, exploiting forced labor to staff large-scale online fraud and extortion campaigns.

How Law Enforcement Can Make Up Ground

To win against the seemingly invincible cybercrime hydra, governments should better organize their national cybercrime LEAs. Here's what they need to do:

Otherwise, in a few years, the Internet may become an uncontrollable zone of lawlessness and chaos, co-managed by rival cyber gangs.

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