How Russia, China & Iran Are Targeting US Elections

COMMENTARY

Adversaries of the United States have been hard at work in advance of the 2024 presidential election. Rather than direct attacks against infrastructure such as voting machines, these nation-state actors — primarily from Russia, China, and Iran — are using cyber operations to stoke discord and influence election outcomes.

The good news is, US leaders have been preparing for these threats for years — and adversaries' efforts have largely been ineffective, despite significant resources invested. Even new artificial intelligence-powered tactics have resulted only in "incremental" productivity and content-generation gains, according to Meta.

Nevertheless, nation-state attacks are a concern. Covert influence campaigns are underway, attempting to: exploit university protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict in order to erode Americans' trust in US institutions; reduce domestic support for providing military and financial aid to US allies like Ukraine; support and/or undermine political candidates based on whether their policies are perceived as favorable; and more.

Russia Continues to Dominate Disruption

Employing a whole-of-government strategy, the Russian government has been the most prolific adversary attempting to disrupt and influence US elections. Operations have increased since 2022, with Russia remaining the top source of disinformation networks disrupted on Facebook and Instagram. Russia recently attempted to impersonate US citizens and media organizations, and Meta has removed more than 5,000 accounts and pages linked to Russian propaganda network Doppelgänger since May 2024. Generative AI (GenAI) is also boosting Russia's capabilities, scaling campaigns via content creation, translation capabilities, and image creation.

Russian operatives have stood up several inauthentic news portals, taking advantage of the increasing trend among Americans to seek news from alternative sources. Fake news websites now outnumber legitimate local news sites, in large part thanks to Russia.

The war in Ukraine has not slowed these efforts, though the Kremlin has outsourced some cyber operations to private contractors.

Russia likely will promote candidates who oppose aid to Ukraine, attack those who support Ukraine, and undermine popular support for Ukraine in swing states.

Due to increased government and researcher scrutiny — such as the Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Americans who have collaborated with Russia's state television networks — Russia-backed campaigns have responded by significantly changing their tactics. Meta reported "notable shifts" in Doppelgänger's operational tactics in response to "aggressive enforcement." But these efforts are unlikely to impact Russia's long-term operations, given its deep pockets and near-unlimited resources. 

Iran Rises in Prominence

The government of Iran has emerged as a more significant threat this year than in previous election cycles. The US-Iranian relationship remains tense, and Iran's cyber activities are likely to continue as a tool of statecraft. Like Moscow, Tehran undoubtedly views the election as consequential for its own interests and will attempt to shape the outcome.

Iran's objective is to undermine confidence in democratic institutions and carry out aggressive cyber activities on multiple fronts to gather intelligence. Iranian cyberattacks recently attempted to access sensitive US election information. Other recent attacks targeted the Trump and Biden-Harris presidential campaigns, and breached the email of Roger Stone, a longtime Trump ally and political adviser.

Separate reporting indicates Iranian actors have also spent recent months creating fake news sites and impersonating activists, laying the groundwork to stoke division and potentially sway American voters this fall, especially in swing states.

China Works to Divide Voters

The Chinese government continues to amplify polarizing domestic issues ahead of the US elections, increasingly targeting specific candidates and parties. However, China's interference likely will remain limited compared with Russia and Iran, in order to avoid risking its diplomatic relations with the US government.

Nevertheless, Chinese influence campaigns have grown more sophisticated, including Spamouflage Dragon. China has also increased its use of AI-generated content. Chinese operatives use fake social media accounts to poll voters to identify and better understand the most divisive issues in American society. The number of these sock-puppet accounts, likely run by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), have continued to steadily grow since their emergence in 2023. These operations have achieved very little organic engagement, despite thousands of assets being deployed. Still, there appears to be a clear effort to improve China's understanding of the American political landscape and become more effective at future interference.

The US Retaliates With Disruption

Disruption is the name of the game when it comes to defending against these threats. US government agencies continue to name and shame these activities, taking some wind out of adversaries' sails.

In the private sector, some companies are taking a more active approach to identifying influence operations, countering bogus accounts, and taking down infrastructure. Some of these efforts seem effective, with adversaries scrambling to stay operational.

However, tech layoffs have hampered teams responsible for trust and safety, and some social media platforms are retreating from the misinformation fight. The most dramatic pullback has been from social platform X, where misinformation now proliferates under the banner of free speech. The impact on US elections remains to be seen. 

Russia, China, Iran, and other adversaries will continue to target US elections because they know that a united, strong America is not in their own national interest. Thankfully, while these threats remain a valid concern, US government agencies have doubled down on their assurances to the American public that election infrastructure is more secure than ever.