Cybersecurity & the 2024 US Elections

COMMENTARY

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, cybersecurity is a frequent topic of conversation. From my time in the intelligence community supporting the Department of Defense, I'm familiar with government planning around elections. While the most discussed threats for 2024 are nation-state misinformation and disinformation, this election season, I'm also following cybersecurity threats to municipal election systems. 

The good news is the threat of an actual impactful disruption is low. As the US has funneled significant resources into securing elections over the past decade, US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) lead Jen Easterly said election infrastructure "has never been more secure." However, that doesn't mean threat actors aren't likely to attempt some sort of attacks, such as website defacements or distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks against municipal election websites.

Here are the four threats against local election systems we will most likely hear about in 2024:

Voting Machine Hacking

The most high-profile threat to US elections is voting machine hacking. However, voting machines are rarely connected directly to the Internet, which aligns with current cybersecurity guidelines. This means the most realistic threat vector would require physical access to the machines, according to F5 Labs, a concern addressed through anti-tampering and physical security guidelines around the country. While cyber vulnerabilities within voting machines exist — as demonstrated annually at the DEFCON Voting Village hacking event — to date, there have been no reports of cyberattacks taking voting machines offline or changing votes, despite the clear value of such a capability to US adversaries.

DDoS Attacks

DDoS attacks are a less disruptive but more frequent threat to US elections. Election monitoring and information websites leveraging Google's Project Shield DDoS protection services experienced a 400% increase in weekly attacks during the 2022 midterms. While several companies like Cloudflare offer free DDoS protection services to election-related websites, some sites are still going down. Mississippi's election websites were briefly taken offline in 2022 by a DDoS attack claimed by a pro-Russia hacking group. However, the attack did not impact voting results or availability.

Given the increased profile of the presidential election, we can expect to see DDoS on a larger scale in 2024. However, as CISA and the FBI stated in a July 31 alert, these attacks would not prevent voters from casting their ballots.

Ransomware

The FBI and CISA released a similar alert on Aug. 15 related to ransomware disruptions, reassuring the public that any attack along these lines would not compromise the security or accuracy of voting. Ransomware groups will likely target municipalities — already a common target — in the run-up to the elections. 

For instance, a ransomware attack in April forced a Georgia county to temporarily disconnect from the state's voter registration system as a precautionary measure — highlighting disruptions that could occur around access to voter data or other election information. However, the FBI and CISA noted, "Any successful ransomware attack on election infrastructure tracked by FBI and CISA has remained localized and successfully managed with minimal disruption to election operations and no impact on the security and accuracy of ballot casting or tabulation processes or systems." Similar to DDoS attacks, no reporting suggests ransomware attacks have ever prevented a vote from being cast.

Website Defacement and Email Access

Website defacements are another common threat, where attackers take over election-related sites to alter data or images. These attacks can either aim to embarrass the site owner or subtly manipulate information, such as polling results or polling station hours.

In 2020, a threat actor briefly took over the campaign website for then President Trump, posting a derogatory message and seeking payment in return for not releasing data they claimed to have stolen. While these attacks may occur and could cause local disruptions, they would not impact the ability to vote or tally votes.

Hybrid cyber-physical threats, such as the increasing use of emails or spoofed phone numbers to deliver fake bomb threats or conduct swatting attacks, also present a concern, where false scenarios are reported to provoke a large police response. In 2018, a months-long campaign targeting US schools and businesses caused evacuations, police responses, and major disruptions. Similar attacks on election day could target polling stations, election offices, or ballot-counting sites.

Finally, threat actors (particularly nation-states) will continue to target email accounts of political operatives and organizations. The US intelligence community has already attributed social engineering attacks targeting both major US political parties to Iran. These attacks aimed to access sensitive or embarrassing information to influence the US election, highlighting the frequency of politically motivated social engineering attacks and the importance of secure, unique passwords and multifactor authentication. 

Safeguarding the Vote

While cyberattacks will undoubtedly target US election infrastructure over the next few months, it's important to place these events in the context of the protections put in place. Federal, state, local, and tribal governments, as well as international allies, have all been tracking these threats and implementing mitigations and contingencies to help ensure a secure and smooth election. 

While the 2024 election may see various cyber threats, existing security measures and coordination across all levels of government aim to minimize their impact. Voters should stay informed and rely on official sources to ensure their participation is not disrupted.